Monday, April 7, 2008


Prepare yourself for a crisis. The election was a week ago Saturday and still, today, the results have not been released for the presidential race. This can only mean one thing. Mugabe did not win 50%, and he’s holding the results and as they are modified. There are two ways in which Mugabe received below 50% of the vote. Either, no one received 50% of the vote, in which case the Zim constitution dictates a run-off between the two recipients of the largest percentages of the vote; or Tsvangirai won more than 50%. I now believe, after waiting this long, it is the most probably the latter.

Originally the MDC declared victory in the presidential race, but Tsvangirai retracted that and wanted to wait to see the results. His party has won a majority of the parliamentary seats. And now we await the presidential results. The Zim Election Support Network projected (statistically based on sample) 49% for Tsvangirai. Other groups have projected 50+%!

When the results are finally released, for Mugabe to have over 50% of the vote (and therefore win) would be blatant rigging. So I think when it is released, it will probably show no one winning with over 50% which would lead to a run-off. It’s rumored that even Mugabe supporters are urging him to concede. It’s possible that he might do a kind of power-sharing concession through a super-close run-off. I don’t know. But it’s all very interesting.

You see with all rigging Mugabe didn’t reign. Yes, there were concerns raised over extra (3 million) ballot papers printed, 8500 voters registered whose addresses were empty lots, and that Western journalists and monitors were not allowed (only African ones—I didn’t apply in time). But honestly, there wasn’t as much rigging as normal. The public posting of results was a huge help. It’s harder to change the tally or count of the votes after (or while) the votes tallies are delivered from outlying polling stations to city centers because the results have already been posted! It was much more peaceful than before. This might be due to Mugabe’s weakening image and hold since his country is socioeconomically sinking.

Right now, the Supreme Court is considering forcing a release on the presidential results (after the electoral commission was challenging the Supreme Court’s jurisdiction). The court should have a decision by tomorrow.

Mugabe is invading white-owned farms right now. I shouldn’t say that; Mugabe supporters are doing this but it seems to be coordinated by someone higher up (as soon as police remove the invaders they are doing it again within a few hours). 15 properties have been invaded so far. I’ve also heard 27. Mugabe accuses the MDC (opposite party) of wanting to hand back farms to whites.

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